Our client undertook vendor due diligence to provide assurance to prospective buyers on a business specialising in collecting bad debt, particularly obtaining voluntary agreements for ‘hard core’ cases that had been written off by the lenders. The plan included significant income projections from an increase in the use of outbound telephone calls. We assessed and challenged management’s assumptions so prospective purchasers could understand value drivers and the reasonableness of the projections.
The first key assumptions assessed were the operational metrics used to project the number of calls that could be made by the proposed outbound telephone staff headcount in the plan period. A complimentary second key assumption was “increasing ‘contactability’ – increasing the proportion of customer for whom a valid telephone number was available, thus enabling higher numbers of calls to be made. Our challenge to these assumptions were based on access to benchmarks and expertise in outbound contact centres. The second form of assumption was around prospective conversion rates (the ration of calls to successfully closed debt cases)”, where management had assumed that historical levels of ‘propensity to pay’ could be maintained when the scope and volume of calls increased massively. We advised management that more evidence was required to support this assumption. The final set of assumptions were driven by estimates of quantum of debt recovered per case. Management again assumed that the historic level would be retained, implying that the increase in calling would not alter the mix of debt size. This assumption needed further support.
Our work enabled management to produce defendable projections on this vital source of value in its business plan.